2026 NHL Awards Watch: Hart, Norris, Vezina Betting Analysis

The 2026 NHL Awards Watch enters its final week with the tightest Hart Trophy race in recent memory—and sharp bettors who positioned themselves early on Nikita Kucherov are sitting pretty. After four months of Nathan MacKinnon dominance in the MVP conversation, the market has flipped. Kucherov now commands roughly 50% of PHWA first-place votes in final polling, representing a significant shift that anyone tracking voter sentiment could have seen building since February.

For those of us who bet futures, this is the autopsy. Who had value? Who was a trap? And where does the smart money land if you’re still hunting for edge in the prop markets?

Hart Trophy Market: Kucherov Takes the Lead

The Hart Trophy race has been a three-horse affair all season, but the final stretch has separated the field. Here’s where the voting stands based on PHWA polling:

• Nikita Kucherov (TBL): ~50% of first-place votes
• Connor McDavid (EDM): ~35% of first-place votes
• Nathan MacKinnon (COL): Third, with declining support
• Macklin Celebrini (SJS): Received first-place votes—a 19-year-old in the Hart conversation

Kucherov’s case is bulletproof on paper: 128 points in 74 games (1.73 PPG), a 41-point cushion over Tampa’s second-leading scorer Jake Guentzel, and he’s done it while the Lightning navigated significant injury chaos. The “value to team” argument—historically the strongest Hart predictor—tilts heavily in his favor.

The McDavid angle got sharper after Leon Draisaitl’s March 15 lower-body injury ended his regular season. Since then, McDavid posted 10 goals and 9 assists in 12 games to clinch Edmonton’s seventh straight playoff berth. He enters the final week with 133 points in 80 games, chasing a sixth Art Ross. The 36-point gap between McDavid and Draisaitl on the Oilers’ scoring sheet is the kind of dominance that moves voters.

MacKinnon’s slide is the story. He held the lead for four months, powered Colorado to the Presidents’ Trophy, and leads the NHL with 52 goals through 78 games. But voter fatigue is real—he won in 2024—and the narrative has shifted to Kucherov’s carry job on a depleted Tampa roster.

The Celebrini Wildcard

Here’s where things get interesting for futures bettors who like longshots: Macklin Celebrini received first-place Hart votes as a 19-year-old on the San Jose Sharks. Multiple voters indicated they’d flip their ballots if the Sharks made the playoffs.

Celebrini joins an exclusive list—players recording 100 points as a teenager, last accomplished by Sidney Crosby. One voter made the Alex Rodriguez comparison: A-Rod won AL MVP in 2003 on a last-place Rangers team. The precedent exists for a generational talent to win MVP on a non-playoff squad, though it remains rare.

San Jose’s playoff push fell short, which likely costs Celebrini the trophy. But the Calder is his—and he’ll be the Hart favorite entering 2026-27 if he maintains this trajectory.

Norris Trophy: Werenski’s Late Surge

The Norris race has been a two-man battle between Zach Werenski and Cale Makar, and Werenski has taken the lead at the finish line. Final polling shows:

• Zach Werenski (CBJ): ~53% of first-place votes
• Cale Makar (COL): ~24% of first-place votes
• Evan Bouchard (EDM): Projected finalist

Werenski’s numbers: 22 goals, 81 points through 73 games, second in average ice time (26:34), playing all situations. The “value to team” argument dominates again—Werenski is 14 points ahead of Columbus’s second-leading scorer Kirill Marchenko. He is their offense from the blue line.

The voter logic is straightforward: What is Columbus without Werenski? A lottery team. What is Colorado without Makar? Still a Presidents’ Trophy contender with MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and depth scoring.

Makar’s resume (20 goals, 75 points in 73 games) would win the Norris most years. But he’s chasing his third trophy in seven seasons, and voters are spreading the wealth. Werenski finished second last year—this is his coronation moment.

Sharp bettors who grabbed Werenski early in the season at plus-money against Makar locked in significant value. The line movement told the story: Werenski went from longshot to co-favorite to leader over four months. That’s the kind of market shift you hunt for in futures.

Where the Value Was (and Wasn’t)

Let’s break down the 2026 NHL Awards from a betting perspective:

Winners:

• Kucherov Hart backers: Anyone who grabbed Kucherov before February’s surge captured plus-money on what’s now the favorite.
• Werenski Norris bettors: The value was obvious early—Makar voter fatigue was predictable after back-to-back wins.
• Celebrini Calder locks: This was a -1000 favorite by January, but early-season money at -200 or better was still +EV given the certainty.

Losers:

• MacKinnon Hart at short odds: If you bet MacKinnon at -150 or shorter in December/January, you’re sweating. He’s not dead, but he’s no longer the favorite.
• Makar Norris repeat bettors: The “best player wins” logic doesn’t apply to awards voting. Narrative matters. Fresh faces get rewarded.

Key Factors for Remaining Awards

Vezina Trophy

The goaltending award typically follows team success and traditional stats (wins, GAA, save percentage). Monitor which playoff-bound teams have their starter healthy entering the postseason—that often sways late votes.

Calder Trophy

Celebrini has this locked. The only question is whether he gets unanimous first-place votes or if a voter or two goes contrarian for content. Don’t overthink this one.

Jack Adams

Broadcasters vote here, not writers. The Presidents’ Trophy team’s coach historically gets strong consideration, but the “did more with less” narrative can override. Watch for value on coaches who overperformed expectations.

Sharp Angle: What This Tells Us About Next Season

The sharpest move in NHL awards betting isn’t predicting this year’s winner—it’s using this year’s data to position for next season. Consider:

• Celebrini will open as Hart favorite if he has another 100-point pace. The “best young player since Crosby” narrative is fully formed.
• Kucherov will face voter fatigue if Tampa stays in the same competitive position. Two-time winners have harder paths to a third.
• McDavid at plus-money next preseason could be value if Edmonton adds pieces and he’s “due” in voters’ minds.

For arbitrage bettors and value hunters, NHL futures offer inefficiencies that sharper NFL and NBA markets don’t. The PHWA voter pool is predictable once you understand their tendencies—narrative matters, recency bias is real, and “value to team” trumps raw stats in close races.

Final Projections

Based on current polling and historical voting patterns:

• Hart Trophy: Nikita Kucherov (heavy lean)
• Norris Trophy: Zach Werenski (moderate lean)
• Calder Trophy: Macklin Celebrini (lock)
• Art Ross Trophy: Connor McDavid (clinched)
• Rocket Richard: Nathan MacKinnon (slight lean over Cole Caufield)

The books will adjust these lines for next season within days of the awards ceremony. If you’re building a futures portfolio for 2026-27, start your research now—the best prices disappear fast once the new season’s odds post.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is leading the 2026 NHL Hart Trophy race?

Nikita Kucherov leads with approximately 50% of first-place votes in final PHWA polling. Connor McDavid holds around 35%, with Nathan MacKinnon in third. Kucherov’s 128 points in 74 games (1.73 PPG) and his carry of an injury-depleted Lightning roster have swayed voters.

Will Macklin Celebrini win any NHL Awards in 2026?

Celebrini will win the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s top rookie—that’s effectively locked. He also received Hart Trophy first-place votes as a 19-year-old, making him only the latest teenager to record 100 points (joining Sidney Crosby). He’ll enter 2026-27 as a Hart Trophy favorite.

Is there still betting value in 2026 NHL Awards futures?

Limited value remains in the current races as outcomes are largely determined. The sharper play is positioning for 2026-27 futures once lines post, particularly targeting players who’ll benefit from narrative shifts (voter fatigue on repeat winners, “due” candidates, emerging stars on playoff teams).