Browns 2026 NFL Draft: Late-Round Sleepers for Sharp Bettors

The Cleveland Browns enter the 2026 NFL Draft with glaring roster holes and premium draft capital—picks 6 and 24 in Round 1, plus 39 in Round 2. But if you’re betting Browns futures or building dynasty rosters, the real edge often lives on Day 3. Using ‘The Beast’ to pinpoint late 2026 draft targets reveals a handful of prospects who could dramatically outperform their draft slot ADP. Dane Brugler’s exhaustive scouting guide—400+ reports, 2,700 rankings—is the sharpest public resource available, and cross-referencing his grades with Cleveland’s scheme fit and positional needs surfaces legitimate value plays for the patient bettor.

Why Late-Round Draft Analysis Matters for Bettors

Here’s the uncomfortable truth about NFL Draft betting: the market is efficient at the top. Shedeur Sanders, Cam Ward, Travis Hunter—the juice on those props is squeezed dry. The inefficiency lives in rounds 4-7, where sportsbooks and casual bettors pay less attention, and where a single late-round hit can swing win totals and division odds.

Cleveland’s situation is particularly interesting. New coach Todd Monken’s scheme demands specific athletic profiles—speed at receiver, versatility in the secondary, blocking tight ends who can chip and release. The Browns need depth everywhere on offense, and they have the draft capital to take swings. Sharp bettors tracking Cleveland’s win total (currently hovering around 6.5 at most books) should be monitoring which Day 3 picks actually stick on the 53-man roster.

Market Context: Cleveland’s Draft Position

No direct betting markets exist yet for individual late-round selections, but the downstream effects are what matter. Cleveland’s over/under win total, AFC North futures, and individual player prop markets for 2026 will all be influenced by how effectively they fill roster holes after Round 2.

The Browns have been linked to quarterback, left tackle, and wide receiver with their premium picks. That means tight end, guard, safety, and edge depth will likely come on Day 3. Here’s where Brugler’s rankings diverge from consensus in ways that matter.

11 Late-Round Targets Worth Tracking

Jalon Kilgore, S, South Carolina — Brugler’s No. 88 Overall

The Browns have their starting safeties, but Kilgore’s profile screams modern NFL value. At 6-1, 210 with a verified 4.40 forty, he led the SEC with five interceptions in 2024 and added two more in 2025 before declaring. Brugler notes he “consistently plays up to” his timed speed—a critical distinction from workout warriors who run fast in shorts but play slow on tape.

Kilgore’s slot coverage versatility fits what every defensive coordinator wants. If he falls to Round 4, he’s a scheme fit with starting upside. For dynasty players, he’s a priority stash.

Jalen Farmer, G, Kentucky — Brugler’s No. 94 Overall (No. 6 Guard)

Farmer’s trajectory matters here. He flamed out at Florida, transferred to Kentucky, and started every game at right guard for two seasons before cementing his stock at the Senior Bowl. At 6-5, 312, Brugler calls him “an athletic boulder in pass protection and a bulldozer as a run blocker.”

Cleveland added Zion Johnson, Elgton Jenkins, and retained Teven Jenkins in free agency, but right guard remains unsettled. Farmer has a realistic path to Year 1 snaps. If you’re betting Browns offensive line props or Deshaun Watson sack totals, track this pick.

Markel Bell, OT, Miami — Brugler’s No. 97 Overall (No. 10 OT)

Remember Dawand Jones? The Browns took a flier on the 6-8 Ohio State tackle in 2023. Bell is the same archetype but taller—6-9, 346 pounds with a rare wingspan. He started at left tackle for Miami’s national title game run in 2025.

Brugler’s assessment: “towering, top-heavy blocker” with “NFL starts in his future.” Bell is raw but has genuine left tackle traits, which separates him from right-tackle-only projects. If Cleveland takes a versatile lineman in Round 1 who could kick inside, Bell becomes an intriguing developmental LT option on Day 3.

Brenen Thompson, WR, Mississippi State — Round 3-4 Projection

Thompson ran a combine-best 4.26 forty. That’s not a typo. At 5-9, he’s never going to be a target hog, but Brugler’s assessment that he’s “a threat to score on every touch” is backed by his 18.5 yards per reception at Mississippi State last year.

The Browns desperately need explosive plays. Thompson has injury history and inconsistent college production (he bounced from Texas to Oklahoma to Mississippi State), but his speed is a legitimate cheat code. In a Monken offense that values stretching the field, Thompson could see immediate special teams and gadget snaps.

Kage Casey, G/T, Boise State — Brugler’s No. 10 Guard (Round 4-5)

Three-year starting left tackle at Boise State who showed guard versatility at the Senior Bowl. Brugler says Casey “could compete for meaningful snaps as a rookie.” That’s specific language that matters—not “developmental,” not “practice squad candidate.” Meaningful snaps.

Cleveland’s interior line depth remains questionable despite the Jenkins/Johnson additions. Casey is a plug-and-play option with positional flexibility.

Anthony Lucas, Edge, USC — Round 5-6 Projection

Lucas is 21 years old, 6-5, 256 pounds, and still learning how to rush the passer. He made just seven college starts before last season and recorded all three of his career sacks in 2025. That’s not a great college résumé.

But—and this is a significant but—Lucas has traits that teams covet. His pass-rush arsenal is incomplete, but his physical tools are NFL-caliber. If he makes the roster as a special teams contributor, he’ll get developmental reps. The Browns have historically swung on these upside plays. Lucas fits the profile.

Khalil Dinkins, TE, Penn State — Round 6-7 Projection

Dinkins caught just 28 passes over his final two college seasons. So why is he on this list? Because he played 60%+ of his snaps as an in-line blocker, and Monken’s offense requires a blocking-first tight end.

At 6-4, 251, Dinkins is built for the dirty work. His father Darnell was a blocking tight end for the Browns from 2006-2008. The bloodlines are there, the skill set is there, and the scheme fit is there. Dinkins could be Cleveland’s H-back/FB hybrid as a rookie.

Max Bredeson, FB, Michigan — Round 7 Projection

True fullbacks are nearly extinct in college football. Bredeson played 54 games as a fullback, tight end, and special teamer at Michigan. Monken called Patrick Ricard a “unicorn” when they were together in Baltimore—a fullback who could actually contribute.

Cleveland currently has defensive tackle Adin Huntington filling the part-time fullback role, which tells you how thin they are. Bredeson (or Indiana’s Riley Nowakowski, who Brugler grades higher as a TE) could be a late-round add who makes the 53 purely on special teams value.

Barion Brown, WR, LSU — Round 7 Projection

Three kickoff return touchdowns as a sophomore. A verified 4.40 forty at the combine. Brown is 5-11, 177—slight but electric. He caught 53 passes in his final LSU season after transferring from Kentucky.

Cleveland needs return game juice badly. Brown’s path to the roster runs through special teams, but his speed could translate to offensive snaps in Monken’s system. Brugler has him as his No. 37 receiver—deep in the class, but with a specific NFL skill set.

RJ Maryland, TE, SMU — Day 3 Projection

The son of 1991 No. 1 overall pick Russell Maryland, RJ tore his ACL in 2024 but ran a 4.51 forty at the combine—second fastest among tight ends. At 235 pounds, he’s undersized, but his athletic profile is legit.

If Cleveland addresses tight end early, Maryland becomes less relevant. But if they wait, he’s the kind of receiving threat who could develop behind a starter. Dynasty tight end stash for patient managers.

The Sharp Angle

Using ‘The Beast’ to pinpoint late 2026 value isn’t about finding the next All-Pro in Round 6. It’s about identifying which late-round picks have a realistic path to contributing—and how that impacts team-level betting markets.

Cleveland’s win total is the actionable market here. If the Browns hit on two or three Day 3 picks who contribute immediately (think: Kilgore at safety, Thompson as a returner/gadget player, Dinkins as an H-back), that’s 10-15 roster spots filled by cheap, controllable talent. That depth matters for a team with injury history and offensive line questions.

The inverse is also true: if Cleveland whiffs on Day 3 and ends up cycling through street free agents by Week 6, the under on their win total looks better.

Track the names above. Cross-reference with beat reporter intel during draft weekend. The market won’t move on a sixth-round tight end, but your offseason futures positions should account for who actually fills out the 53-man roster.

FAQ

What is ‘The Beast’ NFL Draft guide?

‘The Beast’ is Dane Brugler’s annual NFL Draft guide published by The Athletic. It contains over 400 scouting reports, 2,700 player rankings, and 300,000+ words of analysis. It’s considered one of the most comprehensive public draft resources available and is widely used by sharp bettors, dynasty players, and NFL front offices.

How do late-round NFL Draft picks affect betting markets?

Late-round picks rarely move betting lines directly, but they impact team depth, special teams quality, and injury replacement options—all of which influence season-long win totals and playoff odds. Sharp bettors track Day 3 selections to identify teams building sustainable roster depth versus those relying on starters staying healthy.

When is the 2026 NFL Draft?

The 2026 NFL Draft begins Thursday, April 23, 2026, with Round 1. Rounds 2-3 occur on Friday, April 24, and Rounds 4-7 conclude on Saturday, April 25. The Browns hold picks 6 and 24 in Round 1, plus pick 39 in Round 2.