MLB Home Run Picks April 13: Alvarez, Lowe, Baldwin Props

Monday’s 10-game MLB slate presents three home run props worth serious consideration for sharp bettors hunting plus-EV opportunities. The market has mispriced Brandon Lowe, Yordan Alvarez, and Drake Baldwin—all of whom carry significant edges based on platoon splits, venue factors, and recent form. Free MLB home run picks for April 13 don’t get much cleaner than these three, with implied probabilities sitting well below where the numbers suggest they should be.

Market Overview: Where the Value Lives

Home run prop markets remain one of the last frontiers where recreational money creates exploitable inefficiencies. Books set these lines based on a blend of public perception, historical averages, and matchup data—but they frequently lag behind recent performance trends and situational factors that sharps can exploit.

Today’s three targets all share a common thread: platoon advantages against starting pitchers with documented home run vulnerabilities, combined with prices that don’t reflect the true probability of a yard ball. When you’re getting +450 or better on a hitter with a sub-+300 fair line, you’re looking at 40%+ edge territory. That’s the kind of inefficiency sharp bettors at bet105 live for.

Current Odds

Note: Odds below reflect market prices at time of publication. For the sharpest lines and reduced juice on MLB props, check bet105’s current offerings.

Player	Market Price	Fair Value Estimate	Edge
Brandon Lowe (PIT) HR	+550	+265	~48%
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) HR	+498	+309	~38%
Drake Baldwin (ATL) HR	+450	+406	~10%

Brandon Lowe vs. Cade Cavalli: The Sharpest Play on the Board

If you’re only betting one home run prop today, this is it. Brandon Lowe at +550 against Cade Cavalli represents the widest gap between market price and fair value on Monday’s slate.

The numbers are straightforward:

Platoon split: .282 AVG / .907 OPS vs. RHP dating back to last season
Power distribution: 31 of 36 home runs (86%) came against right-handed pitching
Recent form: Two home runs in last 10 home games
Venue factor: Pittsburgh’s park plays hitter-friendly, particularly for left-handed pull power

Cavalli has the arm talent to miss bats, but he’s also prone to the mistake pitch. Lowe’s swing is geared for damage when he gets a pitch up in the zone—exactly where Cavalli’s fastball tends to leak when he’s not commanding it.

A +265 fair line implies roughly 27.4% probability. The +550 market price implies just 15.4%. That’s a massive discrepancy. Even if you haircut the model’s confidence by 20%, you’re still looking at significant positive expected value.

Yordan Alvarez vs. George Kirby: The Form Play

Alvarez is locked in. Three home runs over his last 10 road games and a .375 batting average in his last 10 games overall. When Yordan is seeing the ball this well, you want exposure.

The matchup against Kirby is interesting. Career numbers favor Kirby—Alvarez hasn’t crushed him historically. But career H2H in baseball is often noise masquerading as signal, especially in small samples. What matters more:

LHB vs. Kirby (since last season): .257 AVG / .713 OPS, 12 HR in 376 PA
Kirby’s recent home HR rate: 9 home runs allowed in last 8 home starts
Alvarez’s current timing: Elite-level contact quality over the last two weeks

The “he’s due” angle is typically a sucker bet. But when you combine it with a hitter in peak form, a pitcher who’s been leaking homers at home, and a market price that’s 60% higher than fair value? That’s not superstition—that’s math with a narrative tailwind.

Fair line sits around +309. Getting +498 gives you substantial cushion even if your model is slightly optimistic.

Drake Baldwin vs. Eury Perez: The Venue Exploitation

This one requires understanding Eury Perez’s home/road splits, which are stark:

HR/9 at home: 0.67
HR/9 on road: 1.95

That’s nearly a 3x multiplier when Perez leaves Miami. Monday is a road start. Baldwin gets him in Atlanta, where the Braves’ catcher has posted an .845 OPS at home since last season with 12 home runs in 266 plate appearances.

Baldwin’s career numbers against Perez are a small sample but notable: 2-for-4 with both hits leaving the yard. Sometimes hitters just see a pitcher well. The swing paths match up.

Additional factors working in Baldwin’s favor:

Perez’s recent struggles: 5.06 ERA over last 3 starts
Baldwin’s form: .357 AVG over last 10 games
Platoon advantage: .271 AVG / .825 OPS vs. RHP

The edge here is smaller than Lowe or Alvarez—fair value around +406 vs. market price of +450. But it’s still positive EV, and stacking multiple +EV props is how you build long-term profit in this market.

Sharp Angle: Why These Props Are Mispriced

Home run props get priced off a blend of season-long projections and public perception. Books know casual bettors hammer names they recognize and fade guys they’ve never heard of. This creates persistent inefficiencies:

Recency isn’t weighted properly. A hitter’s last 10-game form matters more than his April 2024 numbers, but markets are slow to adjust.
Platoon splits are undervalued. The gap between a hitter’s LHP and RHP numbers is often 100+ points of OPS. Markets don’t fully price this.
Venue factors get smoothed out. A pitcher with dramatically different home/road HR rates should have dramatically different prop pricing. They often don’t.

All three of today’s plays exploit at least two of these inefficiencies. Lowe hits all three.

Bankroll Approach

Home run props are high-variance plays. Even a +EV bet at +550 will lose roughly 85% of the time. The edge is in the price, not the probability.

Sharp bettors at bet105 understand this. You don’t need to hit these at a high rate—you need to hit them at a rate higher than the implied odds suggest, over a large sample. That’s how you grind out profit in the prop market.

Recommended approach: flat-stake all three at 0.5-1% of bankroll each. If you’re more aggressive, you can weight toward Lowe given the larger edge, but diversification across multiple +EV props is the mathematically sound approach.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the best MLB home run picks for April 13?

Based on platoon advantages, recent form, and venue factors, Brandon Lowe (+550 vs. Cavalli), Yordan Alvarez (+498 vs. Kirby), and Drake Baldwin (+450 vs. Perez) offer the strongest value on Monday’s slate. Lowe represents the largest edge with fair value estimated around +265.

Why is Yordan Alvarez a good home run bet today?

Alvarez has been scorching—three home runs in his last 10 road games and a .375 average over his last 10 games overall. He faces George Kirby, who has surrendered 9 home runs in his last 8 home starts and struggles against left-handed power (.713 OPS allowed to LHB). The +498 price offers roughly 38% edge over fair value.

How should I bet MLB home run props?

Home run props are high-variance by nature. Sharp bettors flat-stake them at small percentages (0.5-1% of bankroll) and focus on volume over time. The goal isn’t to win every bet—it’s to consistently find prices that exceed fair value and let the math work over hundreds of wagers. Reduced juice books like bet105 amplify this edge by taking less off the top.