MLB Home Run Picks April 23: Schwarber, Carpenter, Harris Props

Thursday’s MLB slate offers three home run props worth serious consideration for sharp bettors hunting expected value. The edge here isn’t about gut feelings or hot takes—it’s about platoon splits, pitcher vulnerabilities, and quantifiable matchup advantages. Kyle Schwarber at +256, Kerry Carpenter at +415, and Michael Harris at +610 present a rare combination of favorable situational factors that sharp money should be aware of. Let’s break down why these MLB home run picks for April 23 carry legitimate betting value rather than just hope.

Market Overview: Where the Value Lives in Thursday’s HR Props

Home run props represent one of the most inefficient markets in baseball betting. Books price these lines based on aggregate data, but sharp bettors know the edge lives in the specifics—handedness matchups, recent form, ballpark factors, and pitcher tendencies. The three plays we’re examining today all feature left-handed hitters facing right-handed pitchers with documented vulnerabilities to that platoon matchup.

The juice on HR props typically runs steep, which means you need to be selective. A +256 line implies roughly a 28% probability, while +415 implies about 19% and +610 implies around 14%. The question sharp bettors should ask: do the underlying matchup factors suggest a higher true probability than the market implies? In all three cases today, the data says yes.

Public money tends to chase names and recent results without understanding why those results happened. Sharp money focuses on repeatable edges—and platoon advantages against specific pitcher profiles are as repeatable as it gets in baseball.

Current Odds

Note: The following odds reflect market consensus from major sportsbooks. Always check bet105 for the sharpest lines and reduced juice on player props.

Key Factors: Kyle Schwarber vs. Edward Cabrera

Schwarber’s season numbers tell a clear story: 7 of his 8 home runs have come against right-handed pitching. His 1.159 OPS against righties isn’t just good—it’s elite power production concentrated exactly where today’s matchup falls. Edward Cabrera’s platoon vulnerability is equally stark: 10 of his 17 home runs allowed over the past year came off left-handed bats.

The specific data points that matter here:

• Schwarber: .244 AVG, 1.159 OPS vs. RHP this season
• Cabrera: .235 AVG, .716 OPS allowed to LHH over past year
• Cabrera’s HR rate to lefties: 10/17 (59%) despite facing fewer LHH overall
• Home run index rated 8/10 at the venue—favorable atmospheric conditions

This isn’t about Schwarber being “due” or Cabrera being “bad.” It’s about a specific vulnerability meeting a specific strength. Cabrera’s stuff plays down significantly against lefties, and Schwarber’s swing is optimized to punish exactly the mistakes Cabrera makes to that side.

Key Factors: Kerry Carpenter vs. Brandon Sproat

Carpenter’s +415 number looks generous when you dig into the splits. Over the past year, 29 of his 33 home runs have come against right-handed pitching—an 88% concentration rate that tells you everything about where his power plays. His home/road split adds another layer: .871 OPS at home versus .716 on the road. Today, he’s home against a righty.

Brandon Sproat’s early-season struggles compound the edge. He’s already surrendered 3 home runs in just two starts, and his career splits show a massive platoon gap: .922 OPS allowed to lefties versus .661 to righties. That’s a 40% difference in production allowed based purely on batter handedness.

The recency adds fuel: Carpenter has launched 4 home runs over his last 10 home games. When you stack home venue advantage, platoon advantage, and pitcher vulnerability, +415 starts looking like significant expected value.

Key Factors: Michael Harris vs. Cade Cavalli

Harris at +610 is the longest shot of the three, but the underlying factors are solid. His platoon splits since last season: 22 of 26 home runs against right-handed pitchers. His road numbers (.264 AVG, .739 OPS) outpace his home production (.243 AVG, .651 OPS)—and today he’s on the road.

The recent form is undeniable: 4 home runs in his last 10 road games and a .412 batting average over his last 10 games overall. When a hitter is locked in mechanically, the odds of converting hard contact into home runs spike significantly.

Cade Cavalli’s profile fits the exploit. His 5.40 ERA over his last 3 starts suggests command issues, and 4 of his 7 career home runs allowed have come against left-handed hitters. The .721 OPS he allows to lefties isn’t disastrous, but combined with Harris’s current form and road power advantage, the +610 line carries more value than the odds imply.

Sharp Angle: Why These Three Props Represent Real Value

The common thread across all three plays is quantifiable platoon edge. Books set HR props using blended data that doesn’t fully weight handedness matchups. Sharp bettors who isolate LHH vs. RHP production—and match it against pitchers with demonstrated platoon vulnerabilities—find edges the market doesn’t fully price.

Consider the math on a potential parlay. At consensus odds (+256, +415, +610), a three-leg home run parlay pays over 100-1. The true probability of all three hitting is low, obviously. But if each individual play carries 10-15% more EV than the line suggests, the parlay multiplies that edge.

For serious bettors, the single-game plays are cleaner. Schwarber at +256 is the strongest stand-alone, given his concentration of power against righties and Cabrera’s well-documented struggles with lefties. Carpenter at +415 offers the best venue-based edge. Harris at +610 is the highest-variance play but backed by legitimate recent form.

The key to profitable HR prop betting isn’t picking players who “feel like” they’ll go deep. It’s identifying situations where the market underweights repeatable edges. Platoon advantages are repeatable. Home ballpark power is repeatable. Pitcher tendencies are repeatable. Today’s three plays stack those factors in the bettor’s favor.

Bet Recommendation

If you’re playing singles, Schwarber at +256 carries the cleanest value. The matchup is optimal, the venue factors help, and his season-long power production against RHP is elite. Carpenter at +415 is a strong secondary play for bettors comfortable with the price. Harris at +610 is worth a look for those hunting longer odds with underlying support.

For EV-focused bettors: the expected value calculation on Schwarber suggests his true probability of homering in this matchup is closer to 32-35% than the 28% implied by +256. That’s a meaningful edge over volume. Carpenter’s true probability likely sits around 22-24% versus the 19% implied. Harris is closer to a coin flip on edge—genuine value exists, but it’s thinner.

Avoid overexposure. HR props are high-variance by nature. The edge exists, but variance will win individual days. Sharp bettors take these plays consistently over time rather than loading up on single-game exposure.

FAQ

What are the best MLB home run picks for April 23?

The three plays with the strongest underlying value are Kyle Schwarber (+256) vs. Edward Cabrera, Kerry Carpenter (+415) vs. Brandon Sproat, and Michael Harris (+610) vs. Cade Cavalli. All three feature left-handed hitters with documented RHP power facing right-handed pitchers with platoon vulnerabilities. Schwarber’s matchup is the strongest based on OPS production and pitcher HR rates allowed to lefties.

How do you find value in MLB home run props?

Sharp bettors focus on platoon splits, ballpark factors, and pitcher-specific tendencies rather than name recognition or recency bias. The edge in HR props comes from identifying situations where a hitter’s power profile matches a pitcher’s vulnerability. Look for hitters with concentrated HR production against one handedness facing pitchers who allow elevated HR rates to that same side.

Is Kyle Schwarber a good bet to hit a home run today?

Schwarber’s matchup against Edward Cabrera is favorable. He’s hit 7 of 8 home runs this season against right-handed pitchers with a 1.159 OPS, while Cabrera has allowed 10 of 17 home runs to left-handed batters over the past year. At +256, the implied probability (28%) appears lower than his true probability in this specific matchup, making it a value play.