Betting Previews | ATP Brisbane & Hong Kong, January 8th

Grigor Dimitrov (1.59 / -169) vs Raphael Collignon (2.47 / +147)

Raphael Collignon had a strong finish to last season and a real breakthrough on tour, which probably isn’t a total surprise for those who have followed tennis closely over the past year. However, this is now the second time this week his price has raised my eyebrows and made me question whether he really deserves this much credit already. He closed almost at pick’em against Denis Shapovalov — who is volatile, but still usually deserves to be favored — and now he is being given around a 40% chance against Grigor Dimitrov.

For me, that’s a big step up in opposition, and the gap between their talent and floor level is more than noticeable. Sure, one can be cautious with Dimitrov given his recent fitness history, but he had a positive showing in his opening match, which lasted only about an hour, so it likely didn’t do much damage physically, and he also got a day’s rest. If backing a side here, for me it’s clear based on these evaluations — the Bulgarian. I just don’t think Collignon has shown enough in different circumstances to justify being around a 40% chance against a top-class opponent like Dimitrov, who should be winning these types of matches relatively comfortably more often than not, especially early in the week and given his hard-court pedigree.

Quentin Halys (2.75 / +175) vs Brandon Nakashima (1.5 / -200)

The Frenchman Quentin Halys had a horrible second part of the 2025 season and probably needed the off-season more than anyone. Given his aggressive game style — big serves followed by big forehands and constant looking for winners — it’s no surprise his results are volatile and streaky. The best approach with players like this is usually to oppose them when they are out of rhythm or not in their preferred conditions, but also not to be afraid to back them when the circumstances suit.

And perhaps it’s not a big surprise to see Halys do well here in Brisbane, one of the quickest conditions on tour, where big servers have historically performed well. On the other side, Brandon Nakashima brings more consistency and a higher floor level, but for my liking his return game just isn’t reliable enough — especially in these conditions — to justify being such a big favorite against someone who has finally gained some confidence (first time he has won three matches in the same week since late February) and has real upside when conditions suit him and he finds his flow.
If odds didn’t exist, the obvious play would be the over, but the total is already set a game above a standard line (23.5) that hints a longer and tigher match, so it doesn’t stand out as great value. Still, given the conditions and the likelihood of a very serve-dominated match with thin margins, I’m not sure this should involve such a heavy favorite, and the underdog may be worth a small look.

Botic van de Zandschulp (2.66 / +166) vs Alexander Bublik (1.52 / -192)

It always feels like you have to start previews of Bublik’s matches with the cliché “you never know what you’re going to get,” but that idea is becoming a bit outdated. Sure, he will still have bad days like everyone on tour, but at this point we have to give him credit and accept that he is a top-15 player for a reason.

Looking at these prices, it feels like bookmakers are still a bit cautious with him. Yes, van de Zandschulp can be dangerous when clicking, but that doesn’t happen often enough, which is reflected in his ranking. On paper, Bublik is a much better player, and it feels like either he wins this by a decent margin more often than not, or he has an off day and probably loses. With that in mind, Bublik’s spreads are probably where I’d be looking — I think he should be a bigger favorite here.

Alexander Muller (2.12 / +112) vs Marcos Giron (1.77 / -130)

Once again we see Marcos Giron in a marginal favorite position, which, as I mentioned in a recent preview, has been very profitable in recent times and was the correct side against Laslo Djere on Tuesday. However, the opposition is very different this time, which makes me less confident in the American at these odds.

Not that I think Muller is clearly a better player than Djere in these conditions, but stylistically the Frenchman is less aggressive and more consistent from the baseline, and I’ve found this type of matchup to be worrying for Giron. As mentioned before, I don’t like Giron being the one who has to dictate play and act as the clear aggressor — he can get overly aggressive and start spraying more errors than usual, which is exactly where Muller tends to thrive, extending rallies and trying to draw those mistakes.
Matchup-wise, I’d be siding with the Frenchman here, although at the moment his price still hasn’t quite reached the level I’d want. It would look much more interesting if he moved into the 2.30 / +130 range.