Tennis Betting Previews | ATP Adelaide & Auckland, January 13th

Mariano Navone (3.49 / +249) vs Alex Michelsen (1.38 / -263)

At first glance, Alex Michelsen should roll here more often than not, but you have to be wary of this particular situation, as the American is coming off a long week in Brisbane where he reached the semifinals, which only concluded on Saturday evening, meaning he had just two days in between. I don’t think fatigue will necessarily be an issue this early in the season, but the lack of time to adjust to a different venue and conditions is key here, especially since Auckland is different from Brisbane.

Brisbane played almost semi-indoor, while Auckland is known for constant winds and swirling conditions that can be more challenging for players. Having time to adjust here is extremely important and this is where Mariano Navone could have a small edge. After an early loss in Hong Kong, one would expect he’s had several days to get used to these courts and conditions.

In normal hard-court circumstances, Navone should be overpowered by Michelsen’s big hitting, but given how tricky Auckland conditions usually are, it adds an extra layer of uncertainty. In this kind of environment, Navone’s movement, patience, and higher-margin tennis could be more effective than in regular conditions. I’d be cautious backing Michelsen here, especially after his heavy workload last week.

Roberto Bautista Agut (3.17 / +217) vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (1.39 / -256)

I don’t know what bookmakers are seeing here, but I can’t understand how someone like Mpetshi Perricard can be priced this short against anyone on tour. Regardless of the opponent, this is not how “servebots” should be priced when the majority of their matches are essentially coin flips decided by the thinnest margins.

With Auckland conditions, where the wind constantly swirls, having someone this one-dimensional, playing with such low margins and constantly painting lines, makes it even harder to justify a 70–30 type of matchup.

Perhaps bookmakers are reacting to Roberto Bautista Agut’s situation. He hasn’t played since the US Open, finished his season early due to fitness issues, and even withdrew from Brisbane qualifying with stomach problems. Still, that feels far too heavily baked into the price.

Of course, Bautista Agut has never been at his most comfortable against big servers (losing records vs Isner, Raonic, Hurkacz, etc.) as he needs rhythm and rallies to play his best tennis. However, that concern would be much bigger if he was a 2.30 / +130 underdog, for example, but not where he is now.

If I’m getting involved here, the side is very clear at these numbers. For someone breaking serve at only around a 7% rate on hard courts over the last 12 months, winning by margins of three games or more is a tall order. You rarely see spreads this aggressive in favor of the big Frenchman on the main tour and that just doesn’t feel right.

Stefanos Tsitsipas (1.31 / -323) vs Aleksander Vukic (3.64 / +264)

Stefanos Tsitsipas opened his 2026 campaign with three wins from three matches last week at the United Cup, which was the first time since last February that he won three in a row. Starting a new season with a clean slate probably helped him mentally, but more importantly, being free of his long-term fitness issues seems to have played a big role.

He said recently:
“So far everything is good. I’m very pleased to enjoy tennis daily without any discomfort or pain. I haven’t had that in a while. To be able to play pain-free creates happiness and satisfaction and makes me want to train again. After dealing with so much pain, especially in the lower back, being able to do this now feels like the biggest bliss.”

I’ve seen some fans say Tsitsipas is “back” or “in form,” but truthfully, even when healthy, he’s been vulnerable in quicker conditions for quite some time, mainly because of his one-handed backhand being rushed and put into uncomfortable positions. So I’m not sure being “in form” automatically justifies this level of favoritism we see in the market.

Aleksandar Vukic has his own flaws too, especially on the backhand side, but his big serve and forehand combination should be a real weapon against Tsitsipas in these conditions. The Greek crushed him a few years ago in Los Cabos (lost only three games), but those courts are among the slowest on tour, which helped hide Stefanos’ backhand. I’m not convinced things should be anywhere near as comfortable on quicker, slicker courts.

Even acknowledging Tsitsipas’ improved performances recently, these odds still feel a bit too wide to me, mainly because of Vukic’s serve and forehand combo in these conditions.

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