What this does: Enter your odds, your estimated true win probability, and your stake. This calculator shows whether the bet is positive or negative expected value (EV).
Key takeaways
- Positive EV (+EV) means the bet is profitable long term at your estimated probability.
- EV = (win probability x profit) minus (loss probability x stake).
- Sharp betting is about finding +EV, not just winners.
Expected value calculator
How it works
Your American odds convert to decimal odds, which set the profit if you win. Expected value multiplies your win probability by that profit and subtracts your loss probability times the stake. A positive result means the bet is profitable over the long run at the probability you entered.
Why this matters
The whole point of reduced juice is that it turns more bets into +EV. See expected value and why reduced juice matters.
FAQ
What is a +EV bet?
A bet whose expected value is positive: at your estimated win probability, it makes money over the long run.
Where do I get the win probability?
From your own model, a no-vig fair line, or a sharper book’s price. The estimate is what matters.
Does reduced juice affect EV?
Yes. Lower juice means better payouts, which pushes more bets into +EV territory.
Related guides
Related guides
Expected Value Betting · What Does EV Mean? · Betting Calculators
About Bet105
Bet105 is a reduced-juice (-103/-105) sportsbook for sharp and crypto bettors. It welcomes winning players rather than limiting them, and crypto payouts clear fast with no KYC for standard play.