MLB Home Run Props April 23: Judge, Buxton Value Plays

Thursday’s nine-game MLB slate presents a straightforward question for sharp bettors hunting home run props: where does the market misprice power potential? Free MLB home run picks for April 23 require more than pointing at sluggers with big names—they demand a dissection of pitcher matchups, recent form, and whether the juice on these props actually reflects true probability. Two names surface with genuine edges: Aaron Judge facing a Triple-A callup, and Byron Buxton running hot against a pitcher returning from Tommy John surgery. Let’s break down whether these HR props offer real expected value or just narrative appeal.

Market Overview: Where the Value Actually Lives

Home run props are notoriously high-vig markets. Sportsbooks know casual bettors love the lottery ticket feel of backing a slugger to go yard, which means the juice is typically brutal. The key to finding EV in this market isn’t picking the guy most likely to homer—it’s identifying where the implied probability embedded in the odds undersells the actual probability based on matchup factors.

Thursday’s slate features several intriguing spots, but two stand out when you overlay pitcher quality, recent power numbers, and platoon advantages. The market has set prices that, when you run the numbers, appear to undervalue both Judge and Buxton in their respective matchups.

Note: Odds shown are reference lines from competing books. Check bet105 for current pricing—our reduced juice model frequently offers better value on player props.

Aaron Judge vs. Payton Tolle: The Matchup Breakdown

Judge sits at nine homers through April 23, third in MLB and tops on the Yankees roster. That’s not the interesting part. The interesting part is who’s toeing the rubber for Boston: Payton Tolle, a left-handed pitcher being called up from Triple-A Worcester for spot duty.

Here’s where the numbers get sharp:

Tolle’s 2025 MLB sample: Seven appearances, two of three starts resulted in multiple home runs allowed
Judge vs. LHP in 2026: Five of his nine homers have come against left-handed pitching—in roughly half the at-bats he’s logged against right-handers
Recent form: Three homers in the last seven days

The market is pricing Judge at +253, implying roughly a 28.3% probability of going yard. Against a left-hander with a small-sample history of getting taken deep, and with Judge demonstrating extreme platoon power splits this season, that number feels light.

Sharp Angle: Judge HR Prop

The contrarian argument here would be that Tolle’s Triple-A numbers might not reflect his true talent level, and that small samples in his brief MLB stint shouldn’t be extrapolated. Fair point. But consider the closing line value principle: if this line moves toward Judge by game time, you’ll know sharp money agreed with this assessment.

The edge exists in the platoon advantage. Judge’s ISO (isolated power) against left-handed pitching is elite, and Tolle doesn’t have the secondary stuff to miss barrels. When a power hitter with a demonstrated platoon split faces a pitcher whose command profile suggests he’ll leak into the hitting zone, the HR probability ticks up materially.

At +253, you’re getting roughly 3.5-to-1 on a proposition that may have closer to a 32-35% true probability when you account for matchup factors. That’s where EV lives in prop markets.

Byron Buxton vs. Christian Scott: Post-TJS Return Risk

Buxton leads both the Twins and the Mets in home runs heading into Thursday’s Citi Field matchup. More importantly, he’s launched four bombs in the last week alone. This is a hitter locked in at the plate.

His opponent, Christian Scott, makes his first MLB start since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2024. Post-TJS returns are notoriously volatile—velocity might be back, but command and feel for secondary pitches often lag. The Mets bullpen he’ll hand off to? A 6.00 ERA over the last two weeks.

The +367 line on Buxton implies approximately 21.4% probability. Given:

Buxton’s current heater: Four HRs in seven days suggests his timing is dialed
Scott’s TJS return: First start back often features diminished command and over-reliance on fastballs
Bullpen exposure: Even if Scott navigates four or five innings, Buxton likely sees multiple ABs against a struggling pen

The weather wrinkle matters here. Reports suggest wind could be a factor at Citi Field, which typically suppresses home run probability. However, Buxton’s raw power—when he connects, it’s not a wall-scraper—means he’s better equipped than most to overcome wind resistance. The wind is already priced into that +367, and books may have overcorrected.

Sharp Angle: Buxton HR Prop

Pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery face a documented adjustment period. The data on first-start-back performance isn’t pretty: elevated walk rates, reduced strikeout ability, and a tendency to leave pitches over the plate while searching for feel. Scott was a promising arm before the surgery, but promise doesn’t cash tickets.

Buxton’s approach has been notably patient during his hot streak—he’s not chasing, which means he’s getting pitches to drive. Against a pitcher who may struggle to locate off-speed offerings, Buxton will likely see hittable fastballs.

At +367, you’re getting nearly 4.7-to-1. If the true probability is closer to 25-27%—accounting for Buxton’s form, Scott’s rust, and bullpen exposure—this is a positive EV play despite the wind concerns.

Expected Value Framework: Running the Numbers

Let’s apply basic EV math to these props:

Judge +253:

Implied probability: 28.3%
Estimated true probability: 32-35%
If true probability is 33%: EV = (0.33 × 2.53) – (0.67 × 1) = +0.165 units per dollar wagered

Buxton +367:

Implied probability: 21.4%
Estimated true probability: 25-27%
If true probability is 26%: EV = (0.26 × 3.67) – (0.74 × 1) = +0.214 units per dollar wagered

These aren’t slam dunks—home run props never are. But if your true probability estimates are even close to accurate, both plays offer positive expected value. That’s the only criteria that matters for sharp bettors.

Bet Recommendation

Both props warrant consideration, but sizing matters. These are high-variance plays by nature. The edge exists, but variance will win individual nights frequently. The approach for sharp bettors is fractional Kelly sizing—bet small, trust the math over a larger sample.

Judge HR +253: Playable. Platoon advantage and pitcher quality create genuine edge.

Buxton HR +367: Playable with weather monitoring. If wind dies down, this becomes stronger. Check conditions closer to first pitch.

For both plays, check bet105’s reduced juice props for potentially better prices. Even 5-10 cents of additional value compounds significantly over a season of prop betting.

FAQ

Are home run props profitable long-term?

Home run props can be profitable if you consistently identify spots where the market misprices true probability. The high juice means you need a meaningful edge—roughly 3-5% above implied probability—to generate positive EV. Matchup-specific analysis focusing on platoon splits, pitcher quality, and ballpark factors creates the best opportunities for finding that edge.

How do you calculate expected value on HR props?

Expected value = (your estimated probability × decimal odds) – (probability of losing × stake). For a +300 HR prop, if you believe the true probability is 30% vs. the implied 25%, your EV is positive. The challenge is accurately estimating true probability, which requires deep analysis of matchup factors rather than relying on season-long batting stats.

Why do platoon splits matter for home run props?

Platoon advantages—typically hitters facing opposite-handed pitchers—create measurable increases in power output. Breaking balls break toward a hitter’s power zone rather than away from it, and fastballs are easier to track. For power hitters like Judge who show extreme platoon splits, facing a same-side pitcher can suppress HR probability by 20-30% compared to a favorable matchup.