Betting Previews | ATP Brisbane & Hong Kong, January 6th

Denis Shapovalov (1.71 / -141) vs Raphael Collignon (2.2 / +120)

There was a time when Denis Shapovalov would routinely be priced around 1.40 against opponents of this level. Those days feel firmly in the past. The market has clearly adjusted its expectations of the Canadian, seemingly accepting that his game is simply too volatile for him to be trusted as a clear favorite against almost anyone on tour.

A year or two ago, this would have felt like a straightforward spot to oppose Shapovalov. At the current prices, however, it’s not that simple. Raphael Collignon has emerged as a solid tour-level player in recent seasons, but the talent gap between the two still exists, and that alone justifies Shapovalov being a slight favorite.

That said, this is not a spot where I feel comfortable backing the Canadian either. At shorter prices, Shapovalov remains largely unbackable due to his “Russian roulette” style of tennis, where outcomes can swing wildly based on his error count. Ultimately, I see this as a match best left alone at given prices.

 

Nick Kyrgios (2.32 / +132) vs Aleksander Kovacevic (1.67 / -149)

 

Nick Kyrgios’ return to singles competition always draws attention, but the reality is that he is no longer a full-time tour player. Over the past few seasons, it has become clear that his body simply doesn’t allow him to compete week in, week out at this level. At this stage of his career, he is very much a part-time player.

That said, Kyrgios’ serve and raw talent still give him a chance against regular tour opponents, regardless of long layoffs. The main concern, as always, is whether his fitness and stamina can hold up once matches start to accumulate.

In that sense, this feels like a relatively friendly draw for Kyrgios. In a stacked ATP 250 field, he could have faced much tougher opposition. Kovacevic, while flashy when things are clicking, doesn’t possess a particularly high floor and generally prefers slower, higher-bouncing conditions than what Brisbane offers.

A deep run from Kyrgios feels unrealistic—I don’t trust his body to survive multiple matches in a single week. However, early in the tournament, when he is at his freshest, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a competitive performance. This is the phase of the week where Kyrgios is most dangerous. Once matches start piling up, that’s where caution becomes essential.

Given the quick conditions, Kovacevic’s weaker return, and the timing of the match, I don’t mind taking Kyrgios as an underdog here. It’s not without risk, but the spot makes sense.

 

Grigor Dimitrov (1.56 / -179) vs Pablo Carreno Busta (2.53 / +153)

I’m somewhat surprised that Grigor Dimitrov isn’t priced as a bigger favorite in this matchup. The market’s caution is understandable—Dimitrov has played only one match since Wimbledon last summer, winning his opening round in Paris before withdrawing the following day. Fitness and match sharpness are legitimate questions.

That said, markets tend to overreact to long absences, particularly when it comes to established top players, and this feels like one of those situations. Carreno Busta, at this point in his career, doesn’t really resemble a tour-level threat anymore, and even factoring in some rust from Dimitrov, the talent gap remains significant.

More often than not, this matchup projects as a comfortable win for the Bulgarian. The current odds suggest that concerns over his readiness may be exaggerated, creating a solid opportunity to side with Dimitrov.

One final note when considering spreads: Dimitrov is not the type to grind through matches if he feels physically compromised. If he senses something isn’t right, he won’t hesitate to pull the plug, which is always worth keeping in mind.

 

Alexander Muller (2.33 / +133) vs Miomir Kecmanovic (1.67 / -149)

This has been a familiar matchup over the past year, with the two meeting three times last season. Muller came out on top twice, including a win exactly a year ago here in Hong Kong, where he went on to claim his maiden ATP title.

Looking at the opening prices, I’m not particularly drawn to either side in the moneyline market. Kecmanovic being a slight favorite feels reasonable. Despite his unpredictability, his floor level on hard courts is generally higher than Muller’s. That said, Muller is defending a significant chunk of ranking points this week, which adds an interesting psychological layer. It wouldn’t be shocking if the Frenchman struggles to fully bring his A-game under that added pressure.

I remember being involved in this matchup last summer in Toronto, backing Muller at 2.60 (+160) and also taking the over 2.5 sets around 2.25 (+125). Given how volatile Kecmanovic’s performances tend to be, that angle made a lot of sense—and it still does.

What really stands out to me now is the price on this match going the distance. Seeing over 2.5 sets at 2.46 (+146) feels generous, especially considering that nearly 53% of Kecmanovic’s tour-level matches last season went to a deciding set. His matches are often rollercoasters, regardless of opponent.

I’ll also keep an eye on Muller’s outright price. If it drifts closer to 2.50 (+150), that would be enough for me to get involved again. Kecmanovic simply remains too unreliable in favorite roles to fully trust at shorter odds.

 

Laslo Djere (2.02 / +102) vs Marcos Giron (1.86 / -116)

This market is still in its early stages with relatively low liquidity, but it’s worth touching on this matchup as well.

I’ve spoken about Marcos Giron quite a bit in 2025, often backing him because I feel the market has consistently undervalued him. This matchup looks like another example. I personally rate Giron as a bigger favorite here—closer to the 1.65 (-154) range—against Laslo Djere.

Djere does have a sneaky-good serve that can be effective in quicker conditions, but his recent form has been shaky. At this level, I’d need to see a much bigger price on him to consider backing the Serb.

The market has historically been cautious with Giron, often pricing him as only a narrow favorite in spots where I felt he deserved more respect. Last season alone, he was priced between 1.66 (-151) and 2.00 (+100) on 17 occasions and delivered a +26% ROI in those matches.

This feels like another one of those situations. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see money come in on Giron as we get closer to match time.

Bet on these games now at bet105!